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Pharma Sales Set to Grow 5%-8%; Overhaul Effects Unclear
Global pharmaceutical sales are expected to grow by an average of 5% to 8% annually over the next five years, with drugs to treat cancer, diabetes, multiple sclerosis and HIV projected to outpace the market, according to IMS Health. The market research firm is sticking to its projection of 4% to 6% growth this year.
Growth in those disease areas is forecast to “exceed 10%” through 2014 as more patients have access to drugs and new treatments hit the market. Emerging markets such as China, Brazil, Russia, India and Venezuela are expected to grow by 14% to 17% per year, while mature markets will plug along at 3% to 6% annual growth.
IMS also said that the U.S. health system overhaul may “spur fundamental change in the market,” but that its effects aren’t likely to be completely felt until the back half of the decade.
But already pharma companies are changing their sales and earnings expectations because of legislative changes that take place immediately, such as increased Medicaid rebates. Johnson & Johnson today said changes to the U.S. system would pare 2010 earnings by about 10 cents a share and cut revenue by between $400 million and $500 million. And the company predicted the industry as a whole would see sales reduced by about $4 billion this year and $11 billion next year.
Yesterday Eli Lilly said sales would be cut by as much as $400 million this year and $700 million in 2011.